The presidential debates

Tomorrow at 6pm Pacific time, the two major presidential candidates will appear in a "face-off" in Miami. While the spectacle of two candidates arguing their positions and explaining their policies might appear to be in the very best traditions of democracy, it is anything but that. BBC has short episodes from a number of previous debates featuring in many cases the turning points in each debate that purportedly swung momentum away from or towards one of the candidates. There are many instances -- Nixon refusing make-up and appearing to sweat in the first televised debate in 1960, Gerald Ford asserting in 1976 that the Soviet Union had not occupied any part of Eastern Europe, Ronald Reagan ticking off the incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan chastising Michael Dukakis for his relatively young years and subsequently turning the applecart on him since the latter had made Reagan's age (75 in 1984) one of the leitmotifs of his campaign and George H.W. Bush looking at his watch in the middle of a debate in 1992. This season, to prevent any possibility of a social gaffe the debate agreement imposes many, some laughable, restrictions on the conduct of the debates reducing them to mere farces and nothing better than the usual stump speeches each candidate delivers at a campaign event. For instance, to negate John Kerry's five inches height advantage over George W. Bush, the podia are to be placed considerably far apart. Neither candidate can venture too far afield of his podium. Questions asked by the audience for the second debate must be thoroughly vetted and screened by the respective campaign teams a week in advance. The candidates may not ask each other any direct questions. Even the television angles were curbed until the media conglomerates themselves presented a united front rubbishing such restraints and claiming they were not bound by any mutual agreement between the two campaign teams. The Caltech Democratic Club is hosting a debate-watching party preceded by a meeting of the club in a Caltech-owned building. I wonder what that says of the school's position with respect to the election.

Another significant feature of this election is the frenetic pace of voter registration drives. While in India, and I am guessing in the United States in previous elections, voter registration drives were never followed up with very seriously resulting in large voting scandals in Florida and other U.S. states in 2000 where many found their names inexplicably struck off the rolls. This year, a significant portion of campaign funds in each party has been channeled towards increased voter registration events. The Republicans are keen to bring the vote out in huge numbers amongst the Christian evangelists and rural counties although states with these communities in sizeable proportions would probably go into Bush's tally anyway. The Democratic Party, or at least its horde of independently-run operative organisations on the other hand are keen to increase registrations amongst economically backward areas and amongst the African-American community. A whopping $300 million has been spent in such efforts by a single organisation favouring the Democratic party candidate which as the New York Times comments is twice the combined public funding set aside for the candidates. The "swing state factor" is also playing a significant role. Across the campus, there have been flyers exhorting students belonging to a swing state to vote in their respective states. All these factors lead me to cast significant doubt on the deluge of poll findings that favour the incumbent and claim that his lead is only stretching. Having witnessed albeit remotely, one of the biggest psephological debacles earlier this year in India I would know. When seemingly every poll wagered heavily on a moderate victory for the ruling coalition the effect that when such predictions were stunningly thumbed down, the Mumbai stock exchange went through one of the biggest catastrophical slides of course ably accompanied by some rather jubilantly arrogant remarks made by Mr. Yechury and his comrades following their own fortunes rising.

Debating the debates

Election may hinge on debates

Debate agreement (pdf)

Caltech Democratic Club

Record Voter Registrations

America Votes

Swing State Voter

April 2004

January 2004 - March 2004

October 2003 - January 2004

July 2003 - October 2003

May 2003 - June 2003